WARNINGS CORONAVIRUS MAY BE STARTING TO SPREAD AGAIN IN THE NORTH-WEST AND THE SOUTH-WEST OF ENGLAND.

There have been warnings coronavirus may be starting to spread again in the north-west and the south-west of England.

Some scientists say the R number is creeping up across the country and may have surpassed one – the point at which the epidemic takes off again – in these regions.

Tameside Council has “strongly” advised schools not to reopen on Monday.

The government insists the number is not above one anywhere in the country.

So, what is going on? How worried should we be? And what does it mean for lifting lockdown?

It is the number of people each infected person, on average, passes the virus onto.

If the R is three, then 10 people would infect 30 others. But if R is 0.5, those 10 people would infect only five.

An R of one is the crucial threshold. Anything lower and an epidemic is in decline, but if it goes higher then cases increase exponentially.

That R is increasing across England.

One team at Public Health England (PHE) and the University of Cambridge says this has been the clear pattern in their data since 11 May, when restrictions in England were eased.

Their findings suggest we’re now balanced on the edge of a knife.

“Both the north-west and south-west are just above one, but all regions are straddling one,” said Dr Paul Birrell, one of the researchers.

But this is just one mathematical model and there is huge uncertainty in the figures. The PHE data gives a figure between 0.72 and 1.2 for London.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine agrees the south-west may be above one, but paints a more optimistic view of the rest of England and their R number for the north-west is just 0.8.

“Overall, I would say we see R creeping up,” Dr Sebastien Funk, from the London School, told .

They also say the R number is 0.8 in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.