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For months, U.S. pressure on Venezuela has included a buildup of military force in the region, threats of military action, along with strikes on alleged drug boats off its coast.
Yet it remains ambiguous and unclear as to what, exactly, the Trump administration’s strategy is for Venezuela, or its plans for fate of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, some analysts say.
“It’s so frustrating to analyze this policy because we’re not told what the goals are, we’re not told if the ambiguity is intentional, strategic or not,” said Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“There’s very few means of even determining who can answer those questions.”
And, more importantly, asked Freeman, “Does [Trump] even know what he wants at the end of this?”
Trump has, at different times, seemed to offer competing narratives, Freeman said. He has nixed the idea of regime change, given Maduro an ultimatum to leave the country, suggested a diplomatic solution might be worked out with him and then, later, referred to him as a narco-terrorist.
Freeman suggested these different takes on Maduro — and how to deal with him — reveals Trump’s ambiguity about the Venezuelan president and his ultimate fate.
‘Messaging has been very mixed’
Although the end goal seems to be Maduro eventually leaving the country, it’s been unclear how exactly the U.S intends to facilitate this, some observers say.
“The messaging has been very mixed,” said Daniel Batlle, an adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute whose work focuses on Latin America and the Caribbean. “I think there’s been room to doubt what types of pressure the U.S. is willing to use.”
Some in the administration — chief among them U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — who see Venezuela primarily through the prism of regime change, said Geoff Ramsey, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center.
But there are others who seek a more diplomatic solution and an opportunity to advance U.S energy, migration and broader geopolitical interests there, he said.
“It’s difficult to talk about a single objective in Venezuela because I think there’s different factions in the administration that have different and occasionally competing objectives,” Ramsey said.
The ambiguity, if unintentional, suggests a lack of shared vision and co-ordination among this administration, he said.
‘Throwing everything at the wall’
If it is intentional, it’s perhaps a way to destabilize Maduro into not knowing what the U.S. wants, and “scare him enough until he leaves or does whatever” the U.S says, Freeman said.
“It could also be that [the Trump administration doesn’t] have a strong argument to give to the American people, so they’re sort of throwing everything at the wall and seeing what’s there.”
After a series of attacks on alleged ‘narco traffickers’ off Venezuela, the U.S. has deployed its largest aircraft carrier to the region. For The National, CBC’s Eli Glasner explains why President Trump’s show of force may go far beyond fighting drugs.
Since early September, U.S. troops have carried out at least 21 strikes on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 83 people, as Trump escalated the military buildup against Maduro’s government.
That has included deploying thousands of troops and sailors on U.S. ships in the region, as well as authorizing the CIA to conduct covert operations in the country. Trump has also asserted that Venezuela’s airspace should be considered closed.
Recently, however, Trump told reporters at the White House that targeted land strikes would start “very soon.”
Trump has been weighing options, including an attack on Venezuelan territory, for a campaign his administration calls an effort to stop the supply of illegal drugs that have killed Americans. Maduro has denied having links to the illegal drug trade.
Trump has repeatedly accused Venezuela of being a hub for fentanyl trafficking, but records have shown that Mexico is the main source of the deadly drug. While cocaine does come to the U.S. from Venezuela, experts say it likely amounts to about 10 per cent, with the bulk coming from nearby Colombia.
Some have suggested that Trump is targeting the country because it holds the world’s largest oil reserves. In a letter to OPEC, Maduro himself accused the U.S of trying to “seize” the resource. However, the administration has repeatedly stated its main issue with Venezuela is its alleged exportation of drugs.
Earlier this week, a group of Democratic and Republican senators filed a resolution that would block U.S. military action against Venezuela without congressional approval. Meanwhile, strikes against alleged drug traffickers are facing accusations of possible war crimes after a follow-on attack reportedly killed survivors.
The White House confirmed it authorized a second airstrike on an alleged Venezuelan drug boat in September, but denied it ordered everyone on board be killed, which would be considered a war crime.
Experts have repeatedly questioned the legality of the U.S. campaign in the southern Caribbean and Pacific.
But Batlle, meanwhile, questioned, just what impact it has had on Maduro.
“I don’t see the strikes on boats being persuasive for Maduro,” he said. “I think it was reasonable to think that the deployment of U.S military in the Caribbean and the increased pressure through strikes on drug traffickers could put some pressure on Maduro, but clearly it’s going to take a lot more.”
As well, if the U.S. is looking for some kind of regime change, it’s not just a matter of removing Maduro and handful of his aides, Batlle said.
‘Have to dismantle the whole system’
“There is a vast network that needs to keep this system in place,” he said “We’re talking about people within the regime, within the military, organized crime groups that operate with the blessing of the regime.
“It’s not just a matter of taking out Maduro; you have to dismantle this whole system.”
Meanwhile, Ramsey believes that over the next few days, the White House is going to need to be very clear what its plan is for Venezuela, after it was revealed that the administration is engaging actively in negotiations with Maduro.
As Trump threatened land strikes against Venezuela, it was also confirmed that Maduro and Trump spoke by phone last month.
Differing narratives have emerged about the call. White House sources in the administration, according to reports, say Maduro was given an ultimatum to leave, something he was willing to do, provided he and his family members had full legal amnesty. (Trump reportedly rejected that offer.)
But Maduro said the call was cordial and respectful.
“I think the name of the game here is strategic ambiguity,” Ramsey said. “I think above all the president wants a win and I think he’s flexible on exactly what that looks like.