Pipeline-Leaders Offer False Hope

Edmonton (ATB): Pipeline is still mind boggling subject for Albertans.
While NDP Leader Rachel Notley accepted making a promise she has no control in keeping, UCP Leader Jason Kenney was escalating threats that offer him no obvious benefit.
That seems to be all Alberta’s two frontrunners have to offer toward getting a pipeline built, and voters should be skeptical of either option.
The NDP leader held an event in Edmonton to proclaim her confidence that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will be approved by the end of May and under construction by the fall.
“I’m willing to bet my political future on it,” she said. “Albertans need to have faith that we will get this done.”
It’s no secret that NDP re-election hopes — not unlike Alberta’s future prosperity — depend to a substantial degree on Trans Mountain going ahead, or at least on Albertans’ belief that it will go ahead.
Still, for the NDP leader to put her political future on the line at this point is a hollow sacrifice, considering her government’s survival is already at risk and will be decided well before the fate of Trans Mountain is known.
That is, unless Notley was suggesting she would resign in the event her government is re-elected but the pipeline gets further derailed.
The NDP leader didn’t provide clarification, but it’s hard to imagine that’s what she meant.
What is more precarious about Notley’s approach is her request that Albertans have faith the pipeline is “closer than ever,” even when there is reason for second guessing.
Does Notley have new insider information? Has a new project milestone been reached?
The NDP leader had to admit there was none, only the previously known timeline laid out by Ottawa.
According to that timeline, Trans Mountain’s progress is almost entirely dependent on the proper completion of Indigenous consultations Ottawa messed up last time.
It’s quite a gamble for the NDP leader to now tell Albertans she has confidence in the reliability of a federal Liberal government whose standing in this province is about as bad as it’s ever been.
The approach seems to play right into the “Notley-Trudeau alliance” attacks Kenney has been pushing repeatedly during the campaign.
Not that Kenney is offering anything better in terms of policy.
Kenney knows a UCP government would be equally dependent on Ottawa to get the pipeline built, though he’s pitched a handful of aggressive tactics to increase pressure on opponents.
Among the most extreme of these has been his vow to use Bill 12 to turn off the oil taps to B.C., should that province continue its pipeline obstruction.
However, Kenney went two steps further by promising that a UCP government would proclaim the legislation on its first day in office.
It’s the old west equivalent of a gunfighter not being satisfied with merely showing his revolver to an opponent, but also feeling the bravado to prove it’s loaded and cocked as well.
Unfortunately, Kenney’s decision to take such an aggressive posture could easily paint a UCP government into a corner, where he might actually have to follow through on his threat rather than look weak for having his bluff called.
If that’s the case, what does he imagine might happen?
Alberta shutting off those taps would hurt not only our own producers, but would also punish the many British Columbians who support Trans Mountain.
Anger would be stoked, but it’s a big risk to think those in B.C. would turn on each other or on their own government. Instead of capitulating, the B.C. government might well feel empowered to take its own action against Alberta and deepen its efforts against the pipeline.
At worst case, the whole thing could push Alberta to a separation tipping point Kenney has insisted he doesn’t want.
Alberta needs a pipeline built as soon as possible, but the best approach is still through diplomacy, negotiation and the rule of law, not empty promises or extortion tactics.