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Iran and the escalation trap

Front Burner

Has the U.S. been walked into a military escalation trap in Iran? Military expert Robert Pape explains why regime change wars, especially those that rely on bombing campaigns, fail to produce stable political outcomes.

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People inspect the damage at a destroyed apartment building a day after it was struck by an Iranian missile in Tel Aviv, Israel, Sunday, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg) (AP)

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Front Burner27:58Iran and the escalation trap

Today on the show, we wanted to bring on Robert Pape. He is a political scientist with the University of Chicago. And we’ve been following his work on his substack “The Escalation Trap” with a lot of interest since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. 

Pape is going to argue that the U.S. has walked into an enormous, military escalation trap. He takes a hard look at things like missile supplies, and air defense systems, and models them out. His predictions for the future of this conflict, based on present information, and history aren’t great.

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