How America’s war with Iran has shattered the U.A.E.’s sense of security

When debris from an intercepted Iranian missile struck the Fairmont The Palm, a five-star hotel on Dubai’s opulent manmade archipelago on Feb. 28, it pierced not just the country’s advanced missile defence system but also its carefully crafted image of security.

For decades, the United Arab Emirates has positioned itself as an economic and cultural hub, connecting European and Asian markets.

“The U.A.E. in particular, but more broadly, the rest of the Gulf positioned itself as a haven, surrounded by a pool of chaos for the last 40 years … and that’s all been shattered now,” said Stephen J. Fallon, a political analyst who lived in the country for eight years, and now resides in Ireland.

Stability and security have long been a hallmark of life in the Emirates. Millions of people have been attracted to the country over the years, drawn in by its immaculate streets and gleaming towers, jutting out of the desert and reaching for the stars.

According to government statistics, the country had a population of about 11.3 million people as of 2024, the vast majority of whom are not nationals but expats. 

But on Saturday, just hours after the U.S. and Israel launched massive strikes against Iran that killed the country’s longtime Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the U.A.E. came under fire like never before. 

‘It’s not a noise that we’re used to’

Rashad-Asaad Masri moved from Lebanon to Dubai 15 years ago. Like many Lebanese, Masri saw a brighter economic future for himself in the UAE and a state that could provide all the necessary resources he would need to build a life.

“Here, you feel you are backed up by a state, by a country, by a government,” Masri said. “In Lebanon, you feel that you are not backed up by anyone.”

The strikes began on Saturday. Iran is targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East, as well as civilian infrastructure throughout the Gulf, including in Qatar and Bahrain. But the U.A.E has borne the brunt of the Iranian strikes.

Iran has so far launched 189 ballistic missiles and 941 drones at the U.A.E., which lies just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.

“We started hearing stuff in the sky that we’re not used to hearing in Dubai,” Masri said.

That was a sentiment echoed by Alexander Debare, a 37 year-old entrepreneur who was born and raised in the capital Abu Dhabi.

“There were two bangs, like, very loud,” said Debare. “And so I went up to the roof to look up, and obviously it was two missiles which had been intercepted. But it’s not a noise that we’re used to.”

Three people have been killed and dozens of others are injured, mostly from falling debris, since Saturday. A parking lot next to the U.S. consulate in Dubai caught fire after it was struck by an Iranian drone.

Global Affairs Canada is urging Canadians to leave the Emirates as soon as possible, saying the threat of missiles and drones remain. 

Nearly 30,000 Canadians are registered in the U.A.E. Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said she is ordering charter planes for Canadians to leave the country.

“This afternoon, I directed my officials to enter into contracts to charter flights for Canadians,” she said. “This charter is contingent upon receiving the necessary approvals from the government of the U.A.E. to use their airspace, which we have already requested.”

A more expansive attack

The country has come under missile and drone fire before, most notably in January 2022, when Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a barrage of missiles and drones targeting a fuel depot in an industrial part of Abu Dhabi, near the airport. But the attacks of the past few days have been far more expansive.

The U.A.E. boasts “advanced, layered defences, including the Patriot missile system and terminal high-altitude area defence,” said H.A. Hellyer, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies in London. These allow it to defend against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and a variety of other threats, many of which it has seen the past few days.

According to the Emirates’ Ministry of Defence, the country’s multi-tiered system has destroyed 175 of the 189 missiles and intercepted 876 of the drones.

However, though the pace of Iran’s attacks appears to have slowed in recent days, there are concerns about how long the U.A.E. can sustain its defence if the conflict persists for a considerable amount of time. 

“In a prolonged, high-volume conflict, stockpile sustainability — not technical sophistication — would be the principal constraint,” Hellyer said.

The UAE recently rejected a Bloomberg report that it was running low on munitions for its air defense system.

Both Debare and Masri said that despite the growing conflict, life in the U.A.E. remains relatively the same for now.

“I went to the supermarket, said Masri. “It was full, as well, bakeries nearby. There were still people shopping and buying things. So life is a bit normal.”

The U.A.E. has also been proactive in notifying its residents about incoming fire, issuing text message alerts advising them to seek safety and notifying them when a threat has been eliminated.

“You get a message on your phone that says be careful,” said Debare, “and then, as soon as it’s finished, you get a message saying you can resume. It’s so organized.”

Serious questions sure to rise

Still, analysts worry that an extended conflict in the region could damage the country’s hard-earned reputation as a safe and stable place to live and to invest.

“A single episode is unlikely to alter structural foundations,” said Hellyer. “Repeated or high-impact strikes, however, could erode perceptions of invulnerability and accelerate deeper regional security integration.”

Fallon added that many of the Gulf countries appear to be bearing the brunt of Iran’s military efforts.

“I think once it’s settled, there’s going to be some serious questions asked by the Emirates, because it seems to me that they, and the other Gulf states, were sacrificed on the altar of U.S.-Israeli aims,” he said.

“The U.S. and Israel seem content, to an extent, for the Gulf states to bleed economically, while they wage this war.”