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Relief over a truce between the United States and Iran gave way on Wednesday to alarm that fighting was still raging across the region, as Israel launched its biggest attacks yet on Lebanon, and Iran struck Gulf neighbours’ oil facilities.
World financial markets rose after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the agreement late on Tuesday, two hours before a deadline he had set for Iran to open the blockaded Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its “whole civilization.”
But even as Israel and the United States paused their attacks on Iran, Israel escalated its parallel war in Lebanon with some of its heaviest strikes yet. Israel said the ceasefire did not apply to its long-running battles with Iran-backed, Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah.
As well, long after the ceasefire was meant to take effect, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain all reported fresh Iranian missile and drone strikes, several of which targeted vital oil, power and desalination infrastructure. For its part, Iran said an oil refinery on its Lavan Island came under attack.
Iranian state media reported Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz was closed in response to the continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon.
Since the war began, Trump has repeatedly backed off deadlines just before they expire. In doing so again Tuesday, Trump said in a social media post he had come to the decision “based on conversations” with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Gen. Asim Munir, Pakistan’s powerful army chief.
Sharif has invited Iranian and U.S. delegations to meet in Islamabad on Friday.
With several of Iran’s veteran political leaders killed in the war, Iran’s delegation is expected to be led by parliament speaker and former Revolutionary Guards Commander Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.
Quick shipping turnaround not likely
Trump told the French news agency AFP that the ceasefire represented a “total and complete victory” and said on Truth Social that the U.S. had achieved its military objectives. The deal is subject to Iran’s agreement to pause its blockade of oil and gas passing through the strait, Trump has said.
The waterway typically handles about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, and one-third of the world’s fertilizer supply. News of the deal, and the prospect that the worst disruption to global energy markets in history could finally come to a close, caused a sharp fall in oil prices and a surge in share markets around the world.
Araqchi said in a statement Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage through the waterway — if attacks against it stopped.
Reviving shipping from the Gulf could take time: shipping companies will need assurances of safety before sailing.
David Des Roches, a defence analyst and former liaison to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, says that while the U.S. and Iran have agreed on paper to a two-week ceasefire, the two are so far apart on conditions needed to end the war that it’s unlikely to last even a few days.
Container shipper Maersk said it was not yet making changes.
“Any decision to transit the Strait of Hormuz will be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners,” the company said in a statement.
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage, said it should be expected that tankers and oil flowing to Iranian-friendly countries will be the first ones to transit the strait.
Key issues not publicly addressed
The ceasefire suspends the war launched on Feb. 28 by Trump and Netanyahu, which included the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been succeeded by a son, Mojtaba, still not seen in any public messaging since hostilities erupted.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said the ceasefire “with the acceptance of the general principles desired by Iran, was the fruit of the blood of our great martyred leader Khamenei and the achievement of the presence of all the people on the scene.”
With the U.S and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire, CBC’s chief correspondent Adrienne Arsenault asks Munk School of Global Affairs founding director Janice Stein if the deal can hold and what position it leaves both countries in.
U.S. and Israeli officials sought to prevent Iran from projecting force beyond its borders, end its nuclear program and create conditions for Iranians to topple their rulers.
But the war has yet to deprive Iran either of its stockpile of near-weapons-grade highly enriched uranium or its ability to hit its neighbours with missiles and drones. The clerical leadership, which faced a mass uprising months ago, withstood the superpower onslaught with no sign of domestic opposition.
“The enemy, in its unjust, illegal and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement.
There’s little public sign that Iran and the United States had resolved disagreements over the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles or its regional proxies.
In addition to control of the strait, Iran’s demands for ending the war are likely to be unpalatable for Washington. They include withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region, the lifting of sanctions and the release of its frozen assets.
Criticism in Israel
Crowds took to the streets of Iran overnight to celebrate, waving Iranian flags and burning flags of the United States and Israel. But there was also wariness the deal would not hold.
“Israel will not allow diplomacy to work and Trump might change his view tomorrow. But at least we can sleep tonight without strikes,” Alireza, 29, a government employee in Tehran, told Reuters by phone.
In Israel, Yair Golan, a former military deputy chief of staff who plans to run in the next election, wrote on X that the outcome was a “complete failure that endangered Israel’s security.”
“The nuclear program was not destroyed. The ballistic threat remains. The regime is still intact and is even emerging from this war stronger,” said Golan.
Opposition politician Yair Lapid said it would take Israel “years to repair the diplomatic and strategic damage that Netanyahu caused due to arrogance, negligence and lack of strategic planning.”
But elsewhere around the world, the announcement was met with relief and cautious optimism. , and UN Security General Antonio Guterres, through a spokesperson, and Pope Leo, at his weekly audience from the Vatican, each urged the parties to resolve differences through negotiation.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on X that while “ceasefires are always good news,” his government “will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket.”
“What’s needed now: diplomacy, international legality, and PEACE,” said Sanchez, who has been Europe’s loudest critic of the U.S. and Israel’s military actions in the Middle East.
Front Burner33:04‘A whole civilization will die’: Trump to Iran
More than 1,900 people had been killed in Iran as of late March, but the government has not updated the war’s toll for days.
In Lebanon, more than 1,500 people have been killed, while in Gulf Arab states and the occupied West Bank, more than two dozen people have died.
Eleven Israeli soldiers have died and 23 people have been reported dead in Israel, while 13 U.S. service members have been killed.