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Seven UCP leadership contenders set to face off in Edmonton

Please make me your second choice. Or, maybe, rank me as your No. 3.

That’s the message United Conservative Party leadership candidates should bring to party members during tonight’s debate if they were being strategic, say political observers.

Seven candidates will be in Edmonton for the party’s second — and final — official debate before the UCP begins distributing mail-in ballots on Friday.

Lisa Young, a University of Calgary political science professor, says clever contenders should be courting backup support, as garnering more than 50 per cent of the vote on the first ballot will be difficult.

“With this many candidates in the race, with what information we have about support, it seems unlikely,” Young said.

The party will mail its nearly 124,000 party members ballots asking them to rank their choices in order of preference. Voters will scribble numbers next to the names of Leela Aheer, Brian Jean, Todd Loewen, Rajan Sawhney, Rebecca Schulz, Danielle Smith, and Travis Toews.

Members can also vote in person at five locations around the province on Oct. 6 – the same day the party will announce the leadership results in Calgary.

Members don’t have to choose a second or third choice, and so on, but many will.

If no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round, the person with the least votes is dropped from the ballot. That candidate’s votes are then redistributed to those voters’ second choices. The party will repeat the process until a contender receives more than 50 per cent of the votes.

Earlier polls have positioned former Wildrose Party leader and broadcaster Smith as the front runner, with former finance minister Toews as a second-place challenger.

Young spent her weekend tooling with spreadsheets and modelling scenarios. In a battle between Smith and Toews, the victory hinges on how well each performs in the first round, which competitors are eliminated first, how many voters ranked all the candidates, and myriad other factors. It could take until a fifth or sixth ballot to anoint a winner, she found.

Young is also watching to see whether any candidates drop out of the crowded field and publicly support another wishful leader.

Smith the target in first official debate

Politics watchers say Smith has set the contest’s agenda, almost from the start.

Young said Smith listened to a contingent of people — mostly conservatives — who remain furious at federal government policies they say are designed to damage Alberta’s economy. Many are angry about public health restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Six months ago, if someone had said, ‘Danielle Smith is going to be the premier of  Alberta,’ they’d have said, ‘You’re crazy,’ ” said Mandi Johnson, senior campaign strategist at Crestview Strategies.

Mandi Johnson is a senior campaign strategist at Crestview Strategist and has worked for four of the seven UCP leadership candidates. (Submitted by Mandi Johnson)

Johnson has also worked for four of the seven leadership candidates.

A centrepiece of Smith’s campaign is her proposed Alberta Sovereignty Act, which she says would empower the legislature to vote not to enforce federal laws or court decisions it perceives as infringing on provincial jurisdiction.

“I think the only thing that United Conservative voters have cared about is sovereignty,” Johnson said. “Even candidates who at the beginning were sort of anti-sovereignty have moved to sovereignty-light.”

Young said Smith has successfully wooed the folks concerned about these issues into buying party memberships to bolster her support.

Her momentum, plus academic critiques that her sovereignty legislation would be unconstitutional, made her the prime target during the party’s first official debate last month in Medicine Hat.

But more than two months into the leadership race, how important is this second debate in swaying the vote?

Michael Solberg, partner at New West Public Affairs in Calgary, said many members have likely made up their minds.

Candidates need to craft their sales pitch to supporters of their foes they have the most in common with to get those all-important second- and third-place votes of confidence, he said.

Contenders have spent surprisingly little time campaigning on defeating Rachel Notley and the NDP in the next provincial election, scheduled for May, Solberg said.

They should also aim their pitches at the millions of Albertans who aren’t UCP members, he said.

“Now is the time to court the hearts and minds of voters with ideas,” Solberg said. “We’ll see what the defining issues are … but I think it’s got to be on electability. It’s got to be on inflation. It’s got to be on the economy.”

The debate starts at 6 p.m. and will be livestreamed on the party’s website. 

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